The Science of Communicating & Marketing Your Business

• A) Please vote.
• B) Nature votes for Obama
• C) Protention versus Expectation in the Political Process
• D) The Neighborhood Bonfire as a Demonstration of Political Anxieties
• E) Political Variables
• F) Cognitive Interviews
• G) Space Shuttles versus Bicycles
• H) Democrats win by Compositing

Enjoy!

B) Nature votes for Obama

The journal Nature, which has no vote and is not endorsing anyone, would vote for Obama if it could according to their America's choice editorial.

C) Protention versus Expectation in the Political Process

Protention is to Expectation what Hope and Emotion are to Belief and Logic. Protention is what we really, really, really want to have happen, Expectation is what we think will really happen. Obama's message -- Change -- is a protentious message. Voters (I'll offer) expect some kind of change to occur regardless of who gets into office.

However, voters (as far as we can determine) are expressing a greater mythic hope that Senator Obama will radically change things as opposed to the belief that Senator McCain will bring in change, yes, and that his form of change will pretty much be business as usual (not meant as a statement that he'll continue the current President Bush's policies and agenda, only that politics, the political process and the nation will pretty much continue with different shades of gray rather than an obvious and intentional shift in direction).

D) The Neighborhood Bonfire as a Demonstration of Political Anxieties

I also mentioned in that interview being at a neighborhood gathering on Sunday night and being amazed at the amount of misinformation present. There were people at this usually fun-filled gathering (a firepit/bonfire, something I've written about in You can Google the Stars now and KBar's Findings: In Event of Moon Disaster) that still believed Senator Obama is a Muslim (he's not as far as I know) and that, by god!, they're not going to have a Muslim in the White House. I honestly don't know which of the two opinions is worse. Susan and I did find it amusing that the people who consumed the most alcohol (nobody ever gets obnoxiously drunk at these bonfires. Those of us who do imbibe on the far side tend to be quiet about it, falling asleep in our chairs next to the fire. For those of us in Nova Scotia, it allows us some pleasures beyond the usual cow-tipping) were die-hard Republicans and that they (by our standards) became a tad overly assertive/demonstrative.

A nod to an unspoken anxiety regarding the elections? Perhaps.

E) Political Variables

We spoke about race playing a factor in the elections. For those with an interest, this can be thought of as a study of system versus estimator variables.

System variables are those that a given system has control over. Instructions on how to vote (place, how to use a voting machine, times to vote, ...) are system variables. They have a binary aspect to them. You either show up or not at the polling station. You either use the voting mechanisms correctly or not, so on and so forth.

Estimator variables are those that add the "fuzziness" to things. For example, someone says "race" doesn't play a role in their decision making process yet demonstrates prejudicial behavior (such as at the bonfire mentioned above). This is an example of an estimator variable. The concept of "race" does play a role, how much it plays a role is the question. Determining the binary aspects and values of estimator variables is what NextStage does incredibly well (yes, a plug, I'll admit).

F) Cognitive Interviews

NextStage does perform "person on the street" types of interviews as required and as requested and agreed to by the client. Most often these occur when we're validating a model we're about to start using in our online tools. As mentioned in the interview, if you can determine what we're actually testing for from what we're "interviewing" about, give me a call. We might have a job for you.

Anyway, I mentioned in the interview that we had done some "person on the street" interviews in NH and NJ ("Hillary is piloting the space shuttle and Sarah Palin is riding a bicycle"). NextStage uses a modified Cognitive Interview method developed by R. Edward Geiselman and Ronald P. Fisher in the 1980s.

G) Space Shuttles versus Bicycles

I also offered earlier in my posts that the "Hillary is piloting the space shuttle and Sarah Palin is riding a bicycle" line was a real giveaway as to how these two women were placed in people's consciousness. During the interview I shared that Senator Clinton was piloting and Governor Palin was riding, an indication that Senator Clinton is in control and in command, things Governor Palin is not. Also, Senator Clinton was on a first name basis, an indication she is familiar and an equal whereas Governor Palin is Sarah Palin, an object, therefore something strange, other, and definitely not a friend or equal.

H) Democrats win by Compositing

As much as the nation is divided, my suspicion is that the Democrats will win the majority of races they're in. The reason for this suspicion is based on what NextStage calls Compositing. Again, this is something I referenced in the interview. Compositing happens in car dealerships (as an example) when you go in and buy what's on the lot rather than special ordering; you purchase "a vehicle" when you purchase off the lot versus purchasing "these tires, this radio, this engine, this transmission, ..." when you special order. The composite has all the features you want so special ordering isn't in the mix. It's much easier to sell a composite than it is to sell a special order because (as mentioned above) lots of estimator variables come into play with special orders.

The Democrats have been able to create a single buzzword/tagline -- Change -- that resonated and stayed with the population as a whole. The downside to such a single concept tagline is that it will most often create a binary response in the public's mind; you either want change or you don't.

This is where compositing comes in. The Democrats have been able to push a concept of very large and very great change into the public's consciousness because "change" can be personally identified in this election as "President G.W. Bush". The number of people who are anti-Bush is amazing.

Therefore, the Democrats have been able to create a "single" issue election around the concept of "change" and point to what "change" means; get rid of President Bush and what has happened to the country during his Presidency.

This ability to single-ize issues has been something the Republicans have been traditionally good at (most obviously since 2000) and the Democrats traditionally bad at (again, since 2000). This election cycle the tides have turned and the Democrats have created the composite -- the easier sell -- because they've been able to associate "change" with the a single issue.

The Republicans haven't been able to do this. Do they want change? Sure, but how much? I don't see lots of Republicans playing buddy-buddy with President Bush in their ads (in fact, here in NH the incumbent Senator John Sununu is endorsing ads that show his challenger, Governor Jeanne Shaheen, buddy-buddy with President Bush's policies. That's a local indication of how anathemic association with President Bush has become).

Thus the Republicans have had the much harder, special order sell this campaign season. "Yes, I'll purchase Republican but I want less of Iraq and more of Afghanistan, more financial regulation but lower taxes, much more health but no penalties for moving my policies from here to there, ..." and each of these "mores" and "lesses" is an estimator. Don't match your sales pitch to your audience's estimator values? Then you don't make the sale.

But for the Democrats, it's simply "change", an easy sell because "democrats" aren't "republicans" so change, just by force of numbers, has to occur.

And let me write again A) Please vote.

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