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Oct28
How close are the US 2008 Presidential Elections? (and more)
NextStage: Predictive Intelligence, Persuasion Engineering, Interactive Analytics and Behavioral Metrics First, I'm still getting emails and such about my political postings. One difference is that now the emails and such are about what other people are sending me rather than what I, myself, am writing.

Go figure.

mccainchild.jpgCase in point, this graphic. Such graphics fascinate me. I'm not publishing this graphic because I want to drive votes one way or another, merely recognizing that I get lots of images sent to me that are con-McCain (or pro-Obama, I guess) than I get con-Obama (pro-McCain). Consider the images I shared in yesterday's Slew of emails about my political postings (#4).

Things like this fascinate me because it's a distinct shift from the 2004 Presidential campaign. In 2004, the Republican message was conveyed visually (via graphics, etc) in the public conscious much more often than the Democratic message was, the Democratic message was much more often in print (articles, columns, etc).

This time out the Republicans' invagination in public conscious is being done in print rather than in images and the Democrats' is in images rather than in print.

And before you ask, yes, I get emails from people on both sides of the aisle.

So I ask myself, why this shift in invagination in the public conscious?

I shared glibly back in 2000 and 2004 that -- contrary to public opinion -- the Democrats couldn't be well established with the Hollywood crowd. If they were, their marketing and publicity would have been much, much better than it was. Both 2000 and 2004 -- especially 2004 -- the Republicans worked with a marketing machine par excellence. Very tight, concise well targeted messaging. This is demonstrated (in US culture and many western cultures) by image-based messaging rather than print.

A single image that conveys a single message is a great tool (see These are amazing photographs for an unintentional example). Unusually difficult to do correctly and a great tool when it is done correctly. Print messaging often indicates a need to explain, to express, to convey, to confide (consider the average length of my posts as an indication!). So one possible conclusion is that the Republicans (again, in the public conscious) haven't yet found the single message they need to engender the support they require.

The Democrats have done this; Change. Regular readers may remember my writing in Politics and Value Propositions that Senator Obama's message was clear, concise, neat and simple and also my writing "The two democratic campaign sites were designed for people who think in absolutes, blacks and whites. This could be an indication that Senators Clinton and Obama's camps are taking a cue from the NRC's '04 handbook - make things into obvious and polarizing issues." in Political Commentary from a New Media Perspective 26 Mar 07, Part 7. The last time Democrats had as eloquent, terse and direct a message was then candidate Bill Clinton pointing into rally audiences and asking "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?"

Way back I wrote The NextStageologists at the Obama Rally and readers will note that several of our concerns at that time have been more than addressed by the Obama campaign staff since. Who knows...maybe someone was reading?

Short story long: Right now and based on the ability to get a clear, concise message into the public conscious, I'd say things are leaning towards Senator Obama and freely admit this is a no-brainer if one considers the polls. The Palin-boost has pretty much waned for the Republicans. Now there is open talk that Governor Palin has political ambitions far beyond this campaign, something I'm sure everybody was (or should have been) aware of early on.

One last note on the public conscious and how good an indicator it can be for elections; SNL did lots of skits about then candidate George W. Bush, pretty much buffooning him as they're currently doing with Governor Palin.

'Nuff said?

Please contact NextStage for information regarding presentations and trainings on this and other topics.

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