Yesterday I wrote about the candidate's websites' shifting communication styles in Me, Politics, Adam Zand's Really Big Shoe, How Obama's and McCain's sites have changed when we weren't looking. That post dealt with messaging -- the Vs, Ks, As and {C, B/e, M} stuff that tells you a lot about how people think and not everything about how they share their thoughts. A big predictor in the success or failure of any campaign -- marketing, political, ... -- has to do with how messages are shared.
You could consider the "how" part as in how old, how well educated, and how easily.
Think of telling a sophisticated joke (one that requires some life experience to appreciate) to a child. They're not old enough to understand it so the humor is lost on them. Now think of telling a joke that requires some knowledge of physics to the average person on the street. They don't have the education so the humor, again, is lost on them. Lastly, think of telling a very sophisticated, very knowledge specific joke to an average person. You need to explain it, maybe more than once. They might get it, they might not. You might get someone who's quick on the uptake and they guffaw or someone who just can't get it and they laugh politely.
Messaging also has these components;
- Is the audience old enough to understand?
- Is the audience educated enough to understand?
- Can the audience easily respond to the message?
There is no doubt that Governor Palin is popular with her intended audience. There is also mounting evidence that the oomph! the Republican ticket got from announcing her has waned. I have heard on tv news and radio talk shows that both Independents and middle-road Republicans have more turned away than turned toward a McCain White House due at least in part to Governor Palin. Whatever the fate of Governor Palin, there is little question that Senator McCain can make himself understood.
That offered, how well does the current Republican ticket get it's message across to different age groups? It looks pretty good in this chart. The Republican ticket is capturing a very healthy chuck (30-43%) of the 20-44yo age group. That's a serious piece of the voting public, don't you think?
Before sharing the Democratic equivalent chart, I wanted to share a peek at Senator Obama's popularity all by itself.
Senator Obama's "rock star" image may be due in part to his ability to speak directly ("gab") to an amazingly large audience that spans Gen-Ys to Boomers. That broad an audience capture hasn't been seen since Governor Dean's early in his 2004 campaign. I noted during a presentation that Governor Dean's audience capture had shrunk as the Iowa caucuses approached, that he'd lost his ability to appeal -- to "gab" -- to a broad demographic, and that this meant he was going to go down hard. That prediction along with several others came weeks if not months before the Iowa caucuses and other primary contests and proved NextStage's methods accurate (see links below).
Here we add Senator Biden's "Gift of Gab" numbers to the chart and notice that Senator Biden's no slouch either, especially with more youthful audiences. Perhaps he impresses people as a jovial father figure, perhaps and as he said in a Newsweek interview, "The very thing people like best about me at home is that I don't have to pick every word and parse everything," and "And if I say something politically incorrect, they know my motive is good." Perhaps that longevity and his early campaigning for the Presidency in this cycle prepared people for his version of a "homespun" manner.
But the real story is revealed here, me thinks. There are only three age groups where the Republicans' "Gift of Gab" outshines the Democrats' and that's with the 35-44, 65-74 and 75+ year olds, and even then the numbers are just 3.5%, 1.5% and 1% respectively in favor of the Republicans. The rest of the time the Democrats are recognizably above the Republicans in their ability to get their message into the minds and hearts of the voting public.
So looking at this and this alone, the Democratic Ticket wins if the voting occurs right now simply because a much larger population understands and can easily and rapidly respond to their message. And let us remember what happened to Governor Dean. There's still time for things to change, especially considering the number of firsts taking place in this election cycle (see Negative Campaigning for an explanation).
My next post will be a breakdown of how people might go state by state (and only referencing the states NextStage is able to monitor via our InFocus Reports) and assuming I have time.
Please contact NextStage for information regarding presentations and trainings on this and other topics.
Links for this post:
- BizMediaScience Politics blog posts
- Using NextStage's TargetTrack in Political Campaigns
- NextStage Political Offering
- Reading Virtual Minds Chapter 4, "Anecdotes of Learning: Politics Aren't HorseRaces Any More"
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