I suspect, even as I write this, there will be some who poo-poo what I put in this post. Never-the-less, I talked with a few NextStagers (I know, it's Sunday. I really honestly don't work on Sundays. I don't consider this work, though) and we all agreed that we should post it, so here goes. On 8 July '07, in How Politicians Want You to Think - Who's Saying It Best, Finale, I posted the following comment: "Right now Governor Romney's leading the field. ... Right now, he's in the lead as far as who can best be heard.
This statement was made on the basis of NextStage's tools analyzing of Governor Romney's messaging style -- his ability to get his campaign message into the hearts and minds of the greatest number of people. The tool most used to make this prediction is NextStage's TargetTrack tool.
For those who don't know, Governor Romney won the Ames, Iowa straw poll last night. IE, he got his campaign message into the greatest number of hearts and minds of all those who took part in the poll.
NextStage routinely does analysis of how well the politicans are getting their messages across. Our tools correctly predicted the outcomes of the 2004 Primaries and Presidential Election months ahead of others. Call us. We're happy to talk about it.
Please contact NextStage for information regarding presentations and trainings on this and other topics.
Links for this post:
- Firm takes long look at campaigns
- Governor Romney Posts
- The NextStageologists at the Edwards Rally
- Political Posts (category)
- Political Posts (tagged)
- Predicting Election Outcomes Via NextStage's TargetTrack
- Reading Virtual Minds, Chapter 4.G "Politics Aren't HorseRace Any More"
- Senator Clinton Posts
- Working with Prediction Markets via NextStage's Evolution Technology
- IMedia Brand Summit on 9-12 Sept 07
- XChange on 20-21 Sept 07
- DC Emetrics Summit on 14-17 Oct '07
- Society for New Communications Research Annual Research Symposium & Awards Gala on 5-6 Dec 07 in Boston.
Romney's victory is the natural result of more effectively putting his message in the minds of voters than any of the other GOP candidates, something we indicated he was doing back on 7/8/07 (thanks to NextStage's TargetTrack). The message of the straw poll is more important than the victory. The straw poll gave the voters their first real chance to announce who is reaching their hearts and minds. We told you who was doing that. What's more, TargetTrack told us none of the other GOP candidates was rivaling Romney's efforts in reaching the hearts and minds of voters and the Iowa voters echoed our data, as Romney left other GOP candidates in the dust.
And don't let the lack of last minute effort by other candidates deceive you. If McCain or Giuliani had any chance of winning the straw poll, they'd have made more of an effort (and if Romney had any chance of losing, he might have turned out more voters with equal effort, as voters for all candidates are less motivated when the outcome seems predetermined). McCain and Giuliani didn't make the effort that Romney made because they realized they didn't stand a chance, and abstaining is less damaging than a fully contested loss. Romney was winning this straw poll well before the votes were cast, as TargetTrack told us he was doing.
Posted by: Tex | August 14, 2007 6:10 AM | Permalink to Comment