
It was an incredible experience, some of which I've decided to document here because I found it so fascinating.
First, there were three of us there; myself, Tex (who did some excellent analysis during NextStage's 2004 political campaign analysis) and another individual whom I can't identify because their function as a participant observer (similar to the method described in Mapping Personae to Outcomes) would be compromised if I were to do so.
Our purpose was to observe and monitor the audience and the presenters from an athropologic communications perspective.
The rest of this blog comprises our observations and some conjectures based on those observations.
- We agreed that Bill Clinton completely believes that Senator Clinton would make an excellent President.
- We all also agreed that Bill Clinton does not believe she will become President (at least not in this election cycle).
- We all noted the choice of music; all following a theme of "this woman can do it." Ex: "She looked at me with those big brown eyes and said 'You ain't seen nothing yet'."
- Bill Clinton was the only person waving to the crowd when the motorcade pulled in.
- Senator Clinton could learn a great deal by studying Bill Clinton's public persona. Specifically in the way he delivers his message.
- He demonstrated mastery of the points, not the words. It appeared both had memorized their speeches and Bill Clinton had memorized the points. This gave him the ability to modify the words based on his audience. It also gave him the ability to behaviorally prime his audience for what he was about to say next. Senator Clinton seemed to have memorized the words. It didn't matter how the audience was responding, all that mattered was that the words get spoken. This created several moments where she was completely disjunct from her audience and their mood shifted swiftly.
- Bill Clinton signalled for lines from his prompters so elegantly we needed to see it multiple times to be sure that's what he was doing. Senator Clinton's signaling was much more obvious and deliberate. Bill Clinton anticipated his lapses and signaled before they occurred, Senator Clinton only signaled when they were occuring. Again, this caused discomfort in the audience because her discomfort was manifest.
- Everyone who was questioned regarding voting for Senator Clinton demonstrated that they would do so however they also demonstrated discomfort in doing so, specifically that they were aware she was not "the most popular choice".
- Senator Clinton demonstrated an awareness that something exists between her and her audience. We all conjectured, based on behavioral cues and demonstrations, that she believes Bill Clinton is between her and her audience.
- With the above stated, Senator Clinton could easily demonstrate that Bill Clinton's existing and obviously extant charisma ("glamour" is a term we thought was appropriate. Also "power") was being handed over to her from Bill Clinton, however no opportunities to do so were taken.
- All the women questioned said that their choice was either Senator Clinton or Senator Obama.
- The audience was heavily populated by alpha females. The number of women demonstrating cultural matriarcy was amazing. These were not "earth mothers" or "madonnas" but definitely "goddesses", women who were aware of and comfortable with their own power.
- The number of male/female couples demonstrating equal partnership was incredibly high. The number of such couples that demonstrated equal partnership and in which the female was the real authority was even higher.
- Two of us noted the perfumes, colognes, aftershaves, etc., of the people in the crowd. This was very much a mid-middle to lower-upper class audience.
- Men whom we talked with were guarded in their statements, women were committed in their statements.
- There were obvious demonstrations of matriarchal herd behavior when women were gathered together, not so when women were gathered and there were males present.
- Females of all ages were demonstrating territorial displays and it was fascinating to watch. It was more fun to watch the men working hard not to pay attention to the female territorial displays as such displays tend to be elements of mating behaviors. Women engage is such displays when they feel safe, showing aspects of their core-selves.
- Everyone we talked with was not "undecided about who to vote for", they were undecided about "which democrat to vote for".
- There was an astounding number of alpha females among her campaign staff.
- There were no alpha males among her campaign workers.
It would be possible, though, based on the above and other observations not listed, to be able to walk through a crowd (say at a mall, at a downtown crossing, etc.) and predict with high accuracy who was going to vote for Senator Clinton.
Please contact NextStage for information regarding presentations and trainings on this and other topics.
Links for this post:
- Reading Virtual Minds, Chapter 4 "Anecdotes of Learning: Politics Aren't HorseRaces Any More"
- Predicting Election Outcomes Via NextStage's TargetTrack
- XChange on 20-21 Sept 07
- DC Emetrics Summit on 14-17 Oct '07
- Society for New Communications Research Annual Research Symposium & Awards Gala on 5-6 Dec 07 in Boston.



Something I would add, that Joseph and I discussed during the rally (although the last paragraph is strictly my opinion).
The program had Betty Lasky saying a few words (5-10 min) and introducing Bill Clinton, who would say his piece (10 min) and introduce Hillary. A congregation of ~35 sat bleacher-style (elevating rows) on the stage. When Ms. Lasky begain, Bill stood to the side of the bleachers while Hillary sat front row center. This positioning said to the audience that Hillary was one of the 35 VIPs, but Bill stood out as more important. When Betty began introducing Bill, he reacted as if he was being called to speak and moved to the center of the stage. When he realized Betty had a couple more minutes of introduction, rather than return to his place and admit his faux pas by stepping back to side stage, he grabbed (or motioned for) a stool and sat at the front center of the stage, assuming an even more important position than the VIPs, most notably Hillary.
Prior to the beginning of the rally, Bill and Hillary were on stage mingling with the VIPs. Bill always remained facing the general audience, turning his head to speak to people beside or behind him, but always conscious of the people at the rally. Hillary kept her back to the general audience, engaging in conversation with one or two people at a time.
Bill received the better response during the rally. Several people we spoke with indicated they came to the rally to see Bill and I don't recall anyone saying they had not voted Clinton previously. Anyone who has been to these rallies knows Bill is the scene-stealer in the family (a good quality for any political candidate). Bill mentioned during his introduction of Hillary that they are seeing audiences that dwarf the audiences he received during his election campaigns. And this goes to the points made above about Bill attempting to hand over the profits of his charisma and Hillary being unable/unwilling to receive them.
Hillary's campaign strategy clearly involves riding Bill's coattails (an excellent strategy, not the least of which because Bill plays his role with aplomb). However, while Bill appears to be trying to coax Hillary off his coattails to the front of the stage, Hillary seems to be standing on the coattails resenting the coatwearer for casting a shadow upon her. One of the biggest challenges for this campaign will be finding ways to get the less charasmatic person on stage the loudest applause because no one looks presidential standing on coattails.
(awkward segue)
As Joseph mentioned, I worked on this in '04 (and maybe I'm going through withdrawl now). He mentioned above "Everyone who was questioned regarding voting for Senator Clinton demonstrated that they would do so however they also demonstrated discomfort in doing so". Joseph and I discussed this after the rally. Specifically, 'why would everyone in an audience filled with enthusiastic Hillary supporters react negatively (bitterly) when asked about her?' After meditating on it for a few days, I have a thought that varies slightly from the one Joseph offers above.
My wife had the same reaction after seeing the new Harry Potter movie this weekend. We read the books and she really likes them, but the movies end up cutting out 60% of the story and then altering portions of the remaining 40% to cover up the wholes left by the deletions, not to mention they have a cliff notes feel to it because of everything they do manage to cram in. She spends the next few days reminding me of everything they left out/changed, but when I ask her if she liked the movie or if she was glad we saw it, she gets a bitter look on her face before saying yes.
I don't know if the people at the rally were hoping Hillary would be as good a speaker as Bill or if they had some other high expectation, but I think the general reactions suggested she fell short of expectations. While no one wanted to admit they lost any enthusiasm or their views had waivered, her audience's most recent experience with Hillary was universally a negative experience (negative being relative to the bar they had set for Hillary).
Posted by: Tex | July 17, 2007 1:53 PM | Permalink to Comment