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Mar13
Catching Curveballs
NextStage: Predictive Intelligence, Persuasion Engineering, Interactive Analytics and Behavioral Metrics I was just watching the news. There was a story about a CIA informant, "Curveball", who (according to the news) essentially got the US into the Iraq War. Let me make sure we're all on the same page here.
This one fellow lied to the CIA and because of his lies, the US went to war.
Okay, one more time and basically because I'm having trouble with this myself; He lied. Several people in the CIA knew he was lying (again, according to the news report). And (wait for it) on the basis of this one person's lies, the US went to war.

Believe it or not, this is not a post about the US government or the war or any kind of political situation in general or particular. It is about a kind of stupidity that would drive a business to ruin. Let me explain.

Would you purchase a drug from a company that markets the drug based on a test with a single data point?

Would you trust a new food additive if that food additive was deemed harmless based on a test with a single data point?

Would you fly on a plane that had passed one test? Not all the tests that planes are suppose to pass, just a single test. The manufacturers of the plane decided that, what the heck, it must be safe, it passed this one test, why bother with the others?

Let's go at this differently. You're responsible for the strategic directions of a company, a major, international company. Are you going to make a decision which will commit a significant portion of your yearly profits for the foreseeable future based on a single data point? Are you going to make a decision which will shape the future of your company on the international market based on a single data point?

Would you be willing to commit a good portion of your work force, your future, your company's future, the future security of your workforce, your revenue, your position as a mover and shaper in your industry, on a single data point?

Would you?

 

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