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Feb10
Politics: NPR makes their predictions and here are ours, Part 1
NextStage: Predictive Intelligence, Persuasion Engineering, Interactive Analytics and Behavioral Metrics I was listening to NPR's Weekend Edition Saturday this morning. One story, Presidential Pool, 2008, caught my attention. They're starting to make predictions. NextStage had incredible success predicting the outcomes of the 2004 Presidential Primaries and general election months in advance of actual voting, so I figured I'd take a snapshot and make some predictions of my own.

First, these predictions are "If people voted today". This one snapshot does not a reliable prediction make. I'm offering it because, heck, if NPR can have pundits on making predictions, why can't I? I'm neither a pundit nor on NPR, so perhaps my validity is in question.

Then again, NextStage did make accurate predictions before so what the heck? Let's do it again...

 

First, the method:
  1. I downloaded the homepages of Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Why those four? Because we'd already taken snapshots of them before. If you have a favorite politician you'd like us to put into the mix, contact NextStage and make sure you include your contact information.
  2. I then used NextStage's TargetTrackTM tool to analyze these homepages.
  3. I compared the results of this analysis against our larger data pool. Essentially, I digitally "interviewed" about 5,000 people in about 30 seconds (this is how TargetTrackTM works. It's kind of a "Focus Group in a Box"). I asked these 5,000 people a single question, "Who's getting your attention right now?". This question indicates who's in people's consciousness right now, ie, which candidate is getting their brand out best at this moment in time?
My next post will share the results. Stay tuned...

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» Politics: NPR makes their predictions and here are ours, Part 2 from BizMediaScience
Who would win if the nation were to vote today, 10 Feb 07? (part 2) [Read More]

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