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Jan20
How Big Can the Web Get?
NextStage: Predictive Intelligence, Persuasion Engineering, Interactive Analytics and Behavioral Metrics Yes, okay, I'll admit it. I'm reading again. Yes, I'm once again distilling from disparate sources to generate one single idea which (I hope) will be of value. I've written previously about my habit of reading and researching and reading and researching and then just letting ideas come to the surface. This time I was reading about ecosystems. I actually read this information several months back. Today I'm cleaning off my desk and found the material again so reread it and my notes.

By the time this post is out, my post on Quorum Sensing may seem like old hat, yet the two go together. I promised in the Quorum Sensing post that I just knew there was a mathematical tie between the two and yep, by golly, my notes on ecosystem development seem to be it. Even more so since my friend Brad Berens commented on the post and I promised to get back to him on it.

I'd written a while back about attending a Boston KM Forum conference on dark blogs. One statement made at that conference is that blogs are going to peak out soon. I'm not so sure about that and have provided pro and con links at the end of this post.

My unsurety comes an ecosystem perspective on the web in general and the blogosphere in particular. If the question is "Will web use in general and blogs interaction in particular increase indefinitely?" then I think the answer has to do with three major factors;

  1. Access
  2. The number of people willing to go online at any one point in time
  3. The number of people who simply stop going online for some reason (and I don't think this is a real factor due to societilization factors, meaning people are now being trained to seek expertise on the web rather than from a book or some other information source)
Consider item 1: Access is increasing every day. Technology is making the web accessible to the remotest areas imaginable. Item 2: The nature of the web and blogging give them the ability to address different needs rapidly and compare this to... Item 3: Needs which are no longer met or not longer need to be met.

The gift of the web is communication and the ability for groups and cultures to form and dissolve as needed, something I've written about as The Village. This translates in the above as the number of available resources for publication and the availability of inexpensive publishing forums. This is the "Gutenberg Press in your Pocket".

So long as available resources for receiving published material exist and so long as there's a competitive market -- both in writing resources (the trusting the author factor) and publishing the written material -- for the material communicated, the web, blogs, and who knows what will come after, will thrive.

Please contact NextStage for information regarding presentations and trainings on this and other topics.

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6 Comments/Trackbacks




» The Psychology of Loneliness, Part 2 from BizMediaScience
A Strategy for Protecting Online Communities, part 2 [Read More]

Hi Joseph,
Thanks for continuing on this track. I agree that a not-all-that-significant number of people drop offline each year (see the stats from the Center for the Digital Future), but I also think that perhaps online vs. offline might be a mirage. I'm more interested in heavy vs. light use, an increase in the number of websites visited per session/day/week versus a more static number, etc. A couple of years back, Nielsen Media Research put out a number that the average American has 96 TV channels at his or her disposal but only watches about 15... that looks like pre-emptive media filtering to me, so what does that do to Quorums and the like?
Best,
Brad Berens

» Reader Comments from BizMediaScience
Thanks to my readers [Read More]

Hi Brad,
Agreed, the yearly dropoff rates are a relationally small number and also agreed that a interesting area of research would be heavy versus light use. I remember the Nielsen Media findings. What I don't remember is whether or not those numbers have generational boundaries and if those findings considered internet television such as ManiaTV. - Joseph

» Brad Berens on "How Big Can the Web Get?" from BizMediaScience
Brad Berens, Quorums and How Many TV Channels Do You Watch? [Read More]

» Responding to Andreas Mailand Thoughts on Death of the Web Page, part 3 from BizMediaScience
Andreas Mailand has some good thoughts, Part 3 [Read More]

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