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Dec19
Information Markets
NextStage: Predictive Intelligence, Persuasion Engineering, Interactive Analytics and Behavioral MetricsWell over a year ago I read an article by LeggMason's Michael Mauboussin, Capital Ideas Revisited - Part 2, and recently had the joy of rereading that article. What originally drew me to the article was the intellectual discipline Mr. Mauboussin brought to it. Very impressive. I know nothing about investing (or much else, I'm sure) but what got and kept me reading was his multi-disciplinary approach to his topic.
Reading Virtual Minds readers know that I'm a strong proponent of multi-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to problem solving, something I've repeatedly stated in my IMedia columns (by the way, Mr. Mauboussin has a book out, More Than You Know, which also looks interesting from a multi-disciplinary perspective).
The reason I mention Mr. Mauboussin's work at all is because, reading the paper mentioned above, all you need do is substitute "web" for "market" and you're reading a paper on semantic information mechanics. His section on Informational Efficiency (with a few mental edits as I was reading it) was a good treatise on "ideal case" communication theory. Good ideas in there and worth a read, regardless of the field you're in.

Elements which especially appealed to me include:

  • thoughts on social psychology and how crowds generate momentum whether they intend to or not
  • the breakdown on anomalies in the market
  • I got a laugh out of "In other words, the best trading rule worked until the professors published their findings."
  • recognition of the divergence between short term (what I like to call "incident") and long term metrics.
  • the Slow Traveling Ideas section which reads much like a preamble to works on viral marketing
I've mentioned my friend, Tom Connor, the consulting economist of Ridma before. Our conversations often end up with "Tom, I really need to learn more about economics."
Mr. Mauboussin's work makes me think that'll be sooner rather than later.

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